Crunch Time at the Youth Nationals
By Kimball Livingston
Whatever happens in Tuesday's final races for the US Youth Sailing Championship on San Francisco Bay, the action in the Club 420 comes down to two boats.
Look at Tyler Sinks/Briana Provancha leading by one point after two of three race days, and Joseph Morris/Justin Doane hot on the trail. Scores by comparison:
Sinks/Provancha, San Diego Yacht Club: 1-1-2--2-2 (8)
Morris/Doane, Annapolis Yacht Club: 3-3-1-1-1-[37/DNF] (9)
Behind this pairing, it's 14 points back to third in a fleet of 36, and yes, mathematically, something could happen to upset both, but that's not a house bet. You should recognize the name, Briana Provancha. She crewed for Emily Dellenbaugh last year to win the 29er division of the Youth Worlds.
(Yo, a shout out to the Sinks family, where papa Chuck just crewed to second place in the Etchells Worlds in Chicago.)
Looking beyond the Club 420, the situation is amazingly-similar in the Laser. Luke Lawrence and Cam Cullman are the last gunslingers standing on Main Street, and the race for third takes place way down yonder toward the corral. Except, in this class it's first-place Lawrence, the pre-regatta favorite (with scores to justify those expectations) who can't swallow another drop race:
Luke Lawrence, Coral Reef Yacht Club: 3-1-1-1-1-[23/ocs] (7)
Cam Cullman, American Yacht Club: 1--2-2-2-1 (8)
So let's talk Laser Radial, where the situation actually is different.
Chris Barnard from Newport Harbor Yacht Club (last year in this regatta, sailed on Lake Pontchartrain, he and Nichole Popp ran third in Club 420s to Tyler Sinks and Morgane Renoir) has a five-point lead over Texan Philip Crain, Lakewood Yacht Club, tied with Colin Smith of Lauderdale Yacht Club.
Claire Dennis from host San Francisco Yacht Club, Belvedere, California, is the top female at 10th, with (unless I'm getting my counting wrong) a 60-point spread over the next female. Claire might be the house bet, even though her recent focus has been high school academics, not sailing. I talked to her about that HERE
In 29ers Judge Ryan (gotta love the name) and Hans Henken from San Diego Yacht Club are looking good but not "safe" with a six-point lead. Hey, let's go fast and have some fun.
Here's the Forecast from the National Weather Service:
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE MORNING THEN PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 50S BEACHES TO MID 70S WARMEST LOCATIONS. WEST AFTERNOON WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
And the discussion:
AS OF 8:50 PM PDT MONDAY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS CENTERED ALONG 145W THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AROUND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE FIRST WAVE MOVED INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY AND TEMPORARILY DISRUPTED THE MARINE LAYER [that means it got sunny; the marine layer hit 2,500 feet deep last Sunday [Ed.] BUT HAD LITTLE OTHER DISCERNIBLE EFFECTS. LOW CLOUDS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN FILLING IN ALONG THE COAST AS THE MARINE LAYER BECOMES ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN AND STRATUS HAS BEGUN TO PRESS INLAND AS WELL. ONSHORE GRADIENTS THIS EVENING ARE SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING AT THIS TIME...AND THE MARINE LAYER IS OF SIMILAR DEPTH AT ABOUT 1700 FEET. THUS...EXPECT MORNING LOW CLOUDS ON TUESDAY
They do say that we can expect some relief from smoke, at least temporarily.
Yes, you can smell the smoke from the wildfires, even on San Francisco Bay.